Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!

The good news is that Santa Barbara County’s unemployment this March was only 5.2 percent, down from 5.5 percent the previous month and 5.6 percent this time last year, and way down from 10.5 percent during the depths of the recession. The bad news, however, is that Santa Barbara’s numbers are slightly higher than the state of California’s, 4.9 percent, and that of the nation, 4.6 percent.

Aside from the statistics, there are bigger, more compelling questions that have yet to be resolved, according to Peter Rupert of UCSB’s Economic Forecast Project. For example, what impact will the immigration policies of the Donald Trump White House have on North County farmworkers, already in notoriously short supply given the dramatic drop in immigrants crossing the Mexican border in recent years? That same question mark hovers over the South Coast’s hospitality industry, where thousands of immigrant workers fill vital “back of the house” functions.

At the same time that the state’s new minimum wage is starting to take effect, Rupert reported that salaries for some occupations are starting to increase somewhat, reversing the chronic, mystifying trend of wage stagnation that had defined county labor markets for so long. As additional increases in the minimum wage take effect ​— ​eventually bumping it from $10.50 to $15 an hour ​— ​Rupert said he expects Santa Barbara restaurant operators to shed labor costs by transitioning away from waiters to counter service. In places like New York, some restaurant owners are doing away with tips altogether, incorporating tip revenues into the cost of the meal and sharing the proceeds with other kitchen staff. To date, Rupert said, he’s seen little evidence of Santa Barbara owners following suit.