The Economy: What Sucks, What Doesn’t
Takeaways from 2019 South County Forecast Summit
With the GDPs of Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy all trending downward, the global financial outlook “kinda sucks,” said UC Santa Barbara professor Peter Rupert at last Tuesday’s South County Economic Summit. “‘Kinda sucks’ is an economics term,” he said. “We define it as ‘not so good.’”
The United States economy, on the other hand, “doesn’t suck,” Rupert continued. Our GDP is up, job growth is strong, and household net worth is better than it’s ever been. Moreover, job vacancies are especially high. “In my view, it’s a healthy labor market,” Rupert said. “During the Great Recession, you kissed the boss’s ass. Today, you can quit and move to another job because there’s a vacancy for every person who’s looking.”
The $64-million question then becomes: How long will the recovery continue? “The answer?” said Rupert, pausing for effect. “We don’t know. Sorry.” He described potential challenges (Trump’s trade war with China, unfunded pension liabilities, rising minimum wages) and possibilities for continued prosperity (independence of the Fed, the cannabis industry, the nonprofit sector).
